Recovery: Step 3? of 10?

The media led the recession, and the media will probably lead the recovery. A number of reports recently including stabilization of unemployment numbers, stock market climb, higher real estate sales numbers in several markets, have tipped the media buzz towards 'we're in the beginning of the recovery'.

I tend to believe this is true. Recoveries tend to be in fits and starts however, and uneven.

In HIT, things have gone from very slow, to a slight trickle, to a slightly larger trickle. We're seeing more activity, although client urgency is lacking in most cases, and many requirements are for proposed projects, that may or may not be firm. I'd say we're at about step 3 of 10. Candidates are saying regularly that they are getting more calls, more activity, but things are moving slowly, stalling, or no decision is being made. Clients' mindset is that things are slow, there are plenty of candidates, so sense of urgency is lacking. And they may or may not be committed to filling positions. In the next few weeks and months, I expect the volume to steadily increase, more positions to get filled, and the mindset to gradually change.

There are a number of predictions out there of a looming talent shortage (again) in HIT, to come sometime in 2010. Question is: how soon?

My guess is things are likely to start getting busy after Jan. 1. We'll see.